John Williams Shadow Government Statistics
John Williams
America is financially doomed. It has been killed by Congressional spending. The very least "We The American People" can do is to repay members of Congress and the Senate in kind!
Get your nooses ready, America. If the collapse happens, there's a whole slew of Congressmen and Senators who are going to need lynching. ~Hal Turner
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JWSGS - DECEMBER 2005 EDITION SUPPLEMENT
(Re: FY2005 Treasury GAAP Accounting)
Dec. 19, 2005
JOHN WILLIAMS' SHADOW GOVERNMENT STATISTICS
Issue Number 14B
(Supplement to Regular December Edition)
U.S. Treasury Shows $3.5 Trillion 2005 GAAP-Based Federal Deficit
Net of Social Security/Medicare, GAAP-Based Deficit Widened to $760 Billion from $616 Billion
Federal Government Liabilities Top $50 Trillion
Administration Moves to Obfuscate the Big Picture After wo Years of Reasonably Forthright Reporting
Net of all accounting gimmicks, the actual federal budget deficit is running at an unsustainable, system-dooming pace of $3.5 trillion per year, roughly 11 times the size of the $318.5 billion accounting-gimmicked official deficit for 2005. The U.S. Government's negative net worth widened to $49.4 trillion in 2005, with total government liabilities topping $50 trillion for the first time.
The 2005 Financial Report of the United States Government[1], published December 15th by the U.S. Treasury, reported a $760.0 billion net deficit in U.S. government operations for fiscal 2005 (year-ended September 30), based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) as usually applied in the business world, but excluding ongoing liabilities to Social Security, Medicare and similar programs. The $760.0 billion was up 23.2% from 2004's $615.6 billion GAAP-based deficit, while the official, accounting-gimmicked 2005 deficit of $318.5 declined by 22.8% from $412.3 billion in 2004.
Including Social Security, Medicare and similar liabilities, the total GAAP-based 2005 deficit was $3.5 trillion, down from 2004's $11.1 trillion, which was spiked by a one-time setup charge for recent Medicare enhancements. Net of the one-time charge, which we have re-estimated based on the 2005 data (the government has not published an estimate), the GAAP-based deficit in 2004 was about $3.4 trillion.
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US Government - Alternate Fiscal Deficit and Debt (Source: US
Treasury; $s Are Either Billions or Trillions, as Indicated)
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Formal GAAP GAAP GAAP Tot. Fed-
Cash- Ex-SS With SS Federal Gross eral Ob-
Fiscal Based Etc. Etc. Negative Federal ligations
Year Deficit Deficit Deficit Net Worth Debt (GAAP)
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(Bil) (Bil) (Tril) (Tril) (Tril) (Tril)
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
2005 $318.5 $760.0 $ 3.5 $49.4 $7.9 $50.9
2004 412.3 615.6 11.1* 45.9 7.4 47.3
2003 374.8 667.6 3.7 34.8 6.8 36.2
2002 157.8 364.5 1.5 32.1 6.2 32.7
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*$3.4 trillion (updated from an initial approximation of
$4.7 trillion), excluding one-time setup costs of the
Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Moderniza-
tion Act of 2003 (enacted December 8, 2003).
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As shown in the accompanying table, a debilitating pattern has started to surface in U.S. government operations, with annual GAAP-based deficits, net of gimmicked accounting and one-time charges, running at $3.7 trillion in 2003, $3.4 trillion in 2004 and $3.5 trillion in 2005.
From Clarity to Obfuscation in One Year
Administration comments in last year's financial statements were refreshingly honest about the severity of the United States' fiscal travails. Such was not the case in the more heavily politicized 2005 statements.
From the second page of "Management's Discussion and Analysis" (page 4) of the 2004 statements[2]:
"In a table on page 11 of this section, the net present value for all of the responsibilities (for [Social Security/Medicare] current participants over a 75-year period) is $45,892 billion, including Medicare and Social Security payments, pensions and benefits for Federal employees and veterans, and other financial responsibilities. The reader needs to understand these responsibilities to get a more complete understanding of the government's finances [our emphasis]."
The referenced table showed a net annual deterioration in the government's 2004 financial position of $11.1 trillion, consistent with the data shown above.
The 2005 statements, however, contained no such advice to the reader nor a table. The emphasis of 2005 Management's Discussion and Analysis was an analysis as to why the GAAP deficit really shrank instead of widened. Accounting double-talk was used citing an actuarial assumption change that increased the Department of Veterans Affairs liabilities, while all other considerations ranging from Katrina to the War on Terror were lumped into a negligible "net" other cost increases category that combined largely offsetting accruals.
With no text or table showing the big picture, as there had been in 2004, the only indication as to what the numbers were that reflected consistent levels and changes in the net present value of Social Security, Medicare, etc. was the following comment under Other Responsibilities, page 12 of the 2005 statements:
"The 2005 balance sheet shows liabilities of $9,915 billion. In addition, the government's responsibilities to make future payments for social insurance and certain other programs are not shown as liabilities according to Federal accounting standards; however, they are measured in other contexts. These programmatic commitments remain Federal responsibilities and as currently structured will have a significant claim on budgetary resources in the future.
"The net present value for all of the responsibilities (for current participants over a 75-year period) is $49,403 billion, including Medicare and Social Security payments, pensions and benefits for Federal employees and veterans, and other financial responsibilities."
After reworking the underlying data[3], the $49,403 billion is the GAAP-basis net worth of the U.S. government, which translates into $50.9 trillion in liabilities, versus $1.6 trillion in assets, and a net annual loss in 2005 of $3.5 trillion from the government's operations.
The GAO Speaks Out
The recently renamed Government Accountability Office (GAO) has the job of certifying the government's GAAP-based statements, but it has refused to do so, given material reporting deficiencies. With the Treasury touting a reduced 2005 budget deficit and unwilling to repeat 2004's big picture cautions in this year's "Management's Discussion and Analysis," the GAO offered (page 137):
"While we are unable to express an opinion on the U.S. government's consolidated financial statements, several key items deserve emphasis in order to put the information contained in the financial statements and the "Management's Discussion and Analysis" section of the Financial Report of the United States Government into context.
"First, while the reported $319 billion fiscal year 2005 unified budget deficit was significantly lower than the $412 billion unified budget deficit in fiscal year 2004, it was still very high given current economic growth rates and the overall composition of federal spending. Furthermore, the federal government's reported net operating cost, which included expenses incurred during the year, increased to $760 billion in fiscal year 2005 from $616 billion in fiscal 2004.
"Second, the U.S. government's total reported liabilities total more than $46 trillion, representing close to four times current GDP and up from about $20 trillion or two times GDP in 2000.
"Finally, while the nation's long-term fiscal imbalance continues to grow, the retirement of the "baby boom" generation is closer to becoming a reality with the first wave of boomers eligible for early retirement under Social Security in 2008. Given these and other factors, it seems clear that the nation's current fiscal path is unsustainable and tough choices by the President and the Congress are necessary in order to address the nation's large and growing-long-term fiscal imbalance."
For anyone interested in the GAO's thoughts on the material deficiencies in the financial reporting of the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security and Energy, the full text can be downloaded from the earlier noted website.
No Way Out -- System Doomed to Hyperinflation
The regular, annual $3.5 trillion shortfall in government operations cannot be covered by Uncle Sam; the situation has deteriorated beyond any hope of a solution within the existing system. Raise taxes? Even a 100% personal income tax would leave a deficit. Cut spending? Spending cuts that would bring government fiscal conditions into some semblance of order would be so draconian as to be beyond any political possibility in today's environment. What remains inevitable -- only a matter of time -- is a national bankruptcy.
Such circumstances in the past -- though no nation on earth has ever come close to experiencing the level of fiscal and financial fraud now being perpetrated on the American people -- typically have been "cured" by revving up the printing presses and creating excessive quantities of money. The end result is a monetary collapse in a hyperinflation, with the currency becoming worthless. For a detailed discussion of a possible U.S. hyperinflation as well as a history on the GAAP accounting reports, see "Federal Deficit Reality: An Update" (July 7, 2005).
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Footnotes
[1][2] Electronic versions of the 2005, 2004 and prior GAAP-based government financial statements are available at 2005 Financial Report of the United States Government.
[3] In the 2005 statements, pages 42 and 43, are summary statements on Social Security, Medicare, etc. Both the 2004 and 2005 data used in the Treasury's statement preparations can be reconstructed by netting the "future participants" line out of the statements.