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Latest Economic News From Asia...
----- Original Message -----
From: Ed Arlt
To:
Sent: Sunday, January 11, 2009 5:47 AM
Subject: Latest Economic News from Asia....
Some of the latest from Frank Veneroso, who paints an extremely bleak picture on Asia, which The Muppets are failing to notice…
January 8, 2009
Executive Summary
- I put out a simple note subtitled "Getting Cold Feet On The Rally Call" on January 1st. My reason for questioning that rally call was simple. In the last several weeks we have been getting reports of a truly terrifying collapse in global trade and industrial production.
- The astonishingly bad news just never ends. Yesterday it was a report that Taiwan’s exports fell 41.9% in December versus a year ago.
- Today the bad news was a 6.3% decline in German manufacturing orders. We now have more than a 20% decline over the last three months which I believe is unprecedented. A few days ago Brazil reported a surprising 6% year over year decline in its industrial production. Its industrial production has now fallen at a 22% annual rate over the last three months.
- As I have been documenting Wall Street and policy makers seem to be in DENIAL about this global export and industrial collapse, particularly where it is most severe which is in Asia.
- The trade and industrial collapse is almost without historical precedent. One of these days it is going to dissipate the market DENIAL and the "games." This is why I got cold feet about the rally call.
- Yesterday there was a corporate parallel to the horrific economic news. It was a walloping 23% decline in Intel’s fourth quarter revenues that dealt a body blow to the Nasdaq and may have reversed the stock market. U.S. multinationals are going to disappoint big time, DENIAL notwithstanding. I fear more and more such corporate reports as a result of the collapse in global trade and industry.
- Given the terrifying data I see all around me, I have decided to simply stop trying to game the psychology and go with the horrible fundamentals. I don’t think my earlier rally call is going to work.
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